V stat'e predstavleno opredelenie strategii bor'by s osobo opasnoy recidivnoy prestupnost'yu v Rossii s uchetom zarubezhnogo opyta, analiza statisticheskih dannyh i vydayuscheysya kriminologicheskoy raboty V.T. Shalamova «Ocherki prestupnogo mira». Nauchnye metody: 1)statisticheskoe nablyudenie; 2) korrelyacionnyy analiz (ispol'zovanie lineynogo koefficienta korrelyacii Pirsona); 3) regressionnyy analiz (ispol'zovanie metoda naimen'shih kvadratov dlya parametrizacii zakonomernostnyh (nezavisimaya peremennaya h) i tendencionnyh uravneniy (nezavisimaya peremennaya t - vremya)); 4) sravnitel'no-pravovoy; 4)introspekciya; 5) formal'no-yuridicheskiy; 6) postroenie grafikov i tablic; 7) ispol'zovanie eksperimental'nyh i empiricheskih dannyh, poluchennyh drugimi avtorami. Nauchnye rezul'taty, poluchennye avtorom: 1) koefficienty korrelyacii, svyazyvayuschie peremennye; 2) trendovye uravneniya; 3)uravnenie zakonomernosti; 4)obnaruzhenie «skachka raznosti» mezhdu chislom vyyavlennyh recidivistov, sovershivshih prestupleniya, i chislom recidivistov za nih osuzhdennyh v Rossii na vremennom otrezke s 1992 po 2012 gody; 5) sravnenie strategiy protivodeystviya recidivnoy prestupnosti v Rossii i SShA; 6) predlozhenie po opredeleniyu strategii bor'by s osobo opasnoy recidivnoy prestupnost'yu v sovremennoy Rossii. Nauchnaya novizna: zaklyuchaetsya vo vnov' poluchennyh nauchnyh rezul'tatah i opredelenii strategii bor'by s osobo opasnoy recidivnoy prestupnost'yu v Rossii. Prakticheskaya znachimost' zaklyuchaetsya v vozmozhnosti realizacii dannoy kriminologicheskoy strategii bor'by s osobo opasnoy recidivnoy prestupnost'yu posredstvom vneseniya sootvetstvuyuschih izmeneniy v ugolovnyy i ugolovno-processual'nyy kodeksy RF
рецидивная преступность, корреляционный анализ, стратегия противодействия опасной рецидивной преступность
1. Dannaya definiciya «blatarey» predlozhena mnoy na osnove analiza rabot V.T. Shalamova.
2. Osobo opasnye lidery v ITU i vospitatel'noe vozdeystvie na nih: uchebnoe posobie /Yu.M. Antonyan i dr.; pod obsch. red.Yu.M. Antonyana. M.: VNII MVD SSSR, 1989. 80 c.
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4. Kriminal'naya psihologiya. Prestupnye tipy. O psihologicheskom issledovanii lichnosti kak sub'ekta povedeniya voobsche i ob izuchenii lichnosti prestupnika v chastnosti / S.V. Poznyshev; sost. i predisl. V.S. Ovchinskiy, A.V. Fedorov. M.: Infra-M, 2007. 302 c.
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6. Nazvanie zakonov vozniklo iz pravil igry v beysbol, gde otbivayuschiy mozhet propustit' dva udara, prezhde chem vybyt' iz igry, propustiv tretiy udar.
7. A habitual offender is a person who has repeatedly committed the same crime. Various state and jurisdictions may have laws targeting habitual offenders, and specifically providing for enhanced or exemplary punishments or other sanctions
8. Three-strikes laws are statutes enacted by state governments in the United States which mandate state courts to impose harsher sentences on persons convicted of three or more serious criminal offenses. In most jurisdictions, only crimes at the felony level qualify as serious offenses.
9. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1001/S00061.htm 10. Blumstein, A., and J.Cohen. 1987. Characterizing Criminal Careers. Science 237: 985-991.
10. Greenwood, P., and A. Abraharnse. 1982. Selective Incapacitation. Rand Report R-2815-NIJ. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
